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NCAA Play by Play Stats

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NCAA Play by Play Stats

Postby Vuchato » Sun Jun 06, 2010 6:14 pm

Draftexpress.com just added a couple of pages to their stats database, with plus/minus and shot selection. Some very interesting things there. Obviously I keyed in on Favors (they don't have Cousins up for some reason) but feel free to discuss any player in here. They only have players from the 2010 draft, though, so you can't really get a historical feel for it.

Favors shot selection broke down like this:
39.0% 2 pt jumpers
34.6% inside shots
20.1% dunks
5.9% tip-ins
0.4% 3 pt shots

A higher percentage of his shots were dunks than any other player in the draft, and only Lazar Hayward had relatively more tip-ins. He was also seventh in inside shots, so he took very few shots far from the basket. 60.6% of his shots came from those methods, only 39.4% were jump shots. Only Greg Monroe took fewer jump shots than Favors. He wasn't too bad at those jump shots, though, based on eFG anyway. He was 27th in the draft on eFG on jumpers, but ahead of 18 more, including Wes Johnson, X Henry, Devin Ebanks, Greg Monroe, Elliot Williams, Paul George, Eric Bledsoe, and actually, his teammate, John Wall, as well. He had the fourth highest eFG on inside shots, and was good on his dunks and tip ins as well.

As far as plus/minus stats, that is what really surprised me. The way DX did it, they had the average score differential over 40 minutes, both when the player was on and off the court, then the difference between the two. They also had the team's points scored and allowed per 40 minutes, both when the player was on and off the court, and the difference. They also have the defensive and offensive rebounding % differences, to help see the difference in rebounding made, rather than just raw numbers (I think Dumpy requested them specifically ;)).

Georgia Tech outscored their opponents by 12.9 points per 40 minutes when Favors was on the court. That is the 9th best point differential for when a player is on the floor, and you really get to see that having a great supporting cast is a big benefit, the top 3 are the trio from Kansas, and the next two are Pat Pat and Wall from Kentucky. After that are Turner, and Wes Johnson, and just ahead of Favors is Derrick Caracter. The thing is, every guy ahead of Favors had a team that still outscored teams even when they weren't on the floor. UTEP only outscored opponents without Caracter by about 1 point per 40, and Kentucky only outscored opponents by almost 5 when Wall came off, but Georgia Tech fell apart without Favors, and got outscored by over 7 points per 40 minutes when Derrick wasn't on the court. In fact, only Luke Babbitt and Paul George had a higher net plus/minus than Favors, as Georgia Tech had over a 20 point swing per 40 minutes when Favors came on the court.

It isn't just a defensive impact he had either, Georgia Tech scored 13 more points per 40 minutes when Favors was on the court, only James Anderson had a bigger offensive benefit for his team. His impact on the defensive end wasn't as big, as teams would only score 7 less points per 40 when he was on the court, as opposed to when he was off it. Interestingly, his teammate Gani Lawal was second best in this category, the only player who made a bigger difference to his teams defense was Luke Babbitt, apparently.

As for rebounding, Favors made the seventh biggest difference on the defensive boards, but he made a far bigger difference on the offensive glass than anyone, I'm really curious how Cousins compares in this. But Georgia Tech with Favors was a great offensive rebounding team, and without him they were near the bottom (of these lists).

So, that was a pretty long write up on something I didn't really analyze and may not be of great performance, but its pretty interesting, and shows that maybe, just maybe, Favors may have had a pretty nice freshman year, after being one of the top recruits out of high school. I'm kinda excited again.
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Re: NCAA Play by Play Stats

Postby Dumpy » Sun Jun 06, 2010 6:39 pm

Vuchato wrote:As for rebounding, Favors made the seventh biggest difference on the defensive boards,


Thanks for the writeup. Just to clarify, do you mean that, when favors was on he court, the team was much better at defensive rebounding (regardless of who on the team got the rebound) than when he was off of it? If so, was the difference more or less than the difference between HIS defensive rebounds and those of the replacement PF? Can DX tell us that?
Common sense is the collection of prejudices acquired by age eighteen. --Albert Einstein
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Re: NCAA Play by Play Stats

Postby Vuchato » Sun Jun 06, 2010 7:32 pm

The numbers given were that the team grabs 68.1% to 63.6%, depending on if he's on the court or not. Meaning, when he was on the court, the team would grab about 14 of 20 rebounds that the opposing team would miss, the other team would grab 6 of 20 boards they missed. When he was off the court the other team would grab an extra offensive rebound for every 20 shots they missed. Lawal and Favors had about the same amount of rebounds, both offensive and defensive, and Favors got more minutes, so Lawal's per 40 numbers were better, yet Favors ranks higher in this system. As far as I'm aware, the Yellow Jackets had a three man rotation with those two and Peacock. I'd imagine the majority of the time two of those three guys were on the court at the same time, so while it could be the difference between Favors and Peacock, but in that case I'd imagine that Lawal's numbers would be higher, so I have to imagine that Favors impacts helped Lawal get the rebounding numbers he did more than vice-versa. You might say he has a bit of the Collins effect, if you will. Hope that helps.

Also, since my first post, DX has added a bunch more guys to these lists, so my rankings won't be as exact as before. Still no Cousins, though.
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Re: NCAA Play by Play Stats

Postby Vuchato » Sun Jun 06, 2010 11:43 pm

For something else that probably no one else will care about, they have Cousins up now, here's where each guys rank according to these stats:

Cousins
Plus Minus/40
On-16.5
Off-13.1
Net-3.3
Points Scored/40
On-81.6
Off-78.6
Net-3.0
Points Allowed/40
On-65.1
Off-65.4
Net--0.3
Defensive Rebounding %
On-67.4
Off-69.9
Net--2.4
Offensive Rebounding %
On-43.7
Off-40.0
Net-3.7

Favors
Plus Minus/40
On-12.9
Off--7.3
Net-20.2
Points Scored/40
On-76.6
Off-63.5
Net-13.1
Points Allowed/40
On-63.7
Off-70.8
Net--7.1
Defensive Rebounding %
On-68.1
Off-63.6
Net-4.5
Offensive Rebounding %
On-41.5
Off-31.2
Net-10.3

Cousins
2 Pt Jumpers
% taken-44.7
eFG%-35.6
3 Pt Jumpers
% taken-1.4
eFG%-0.0
Inside Shots
% taken-31.9
eFG%-71.3
Dunks
% taken-16.3
eFG%-93.8
Tips
% taken-5.8
eFG%-70.6

Favors
2 Pt Jumpers
% taken-39.0
eFG%-37.4
3 Pt Jumpers
% taken-0.4
eFG%-0.0
Inside Shots
% taken-34.6
eFG%-71.6
Dunks
% taken-20.1
eFG%-96.1
Tips
% taken-5.9
eFG%-60.0

From the Plus/Minus stats, something finally came clear. Kentucky was better than Georgia Tech last year. Sorry for blowing your minds. Anyways, Favors was more important to Georgia Tech's success, but considering the best players on his team are projected second rounders at best, and Cousins could have up to 4 more players on his team go in the lottery, that is to be expected. Something interesting is that when Favors was on the floor GT has numbers (well, those 5 numbers anyway) that are almost as good as Kentucky's were. And Kentucky had pretty similar numbers whether Cousins was on the floor or not. (Heck, they were actually a worse defensive rebounding team when he was out there)

As for the shot selection numbers, those are pretty interesting. Cousins takes a larger percentage of jumpers than Favors, but Favors has been more efficient when he's taken them. Well, Favors has been more efficient at every type of shot, aside from tips anyway. Makes you wonder why Cousins took more jumpers. My best guess is Cousins had more confidence (for better or worse), Favors was more willing to know his weaknesses and play to his strengths, or quite possibly, their coaches asked them to do different things. Of course it could also indicate that Favors was better at getting his position or harder to stop going to the rim.

Like I've said, these numbers might not mean too much, but they're interesting to see, and there's not been too much to talk about today.
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